Early 2013 Academy Award predictions (September 14th, 2013)

SAG Cast award
Twelve Years a Slave

Stoker

The Grandmaster(s)

Spring Breakers

The Butler

Actor

Michael B. Jordan

Chiwetel Ejiofor

Oscar Isaac

Robert Redford

Christian Bale

Supporting Actor

Michael Fassbender

Paul Dano

Joel Edgerton

James Franco

Javier Bardem

Possibly Dwight Henry as well

Actress

Vanessa Hudgens

Mia Wasikowska

Adele Exarchopoulos

Lea Seydoux

Ashley Benson

Supporting Actress

Rachel Korine

Selena Gomez

Nicole Kidman

Quvenzhane Wallis

Animated
Despicable Me 2
Monsters University
The Wind Rises
Epic

Film

12 Years A Slave

Spring Breakers

The Butler
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Wind Rises Hayao Miyazaki
Stoker Park Chan-wook
The Grandmaster/s Blue is the Warmest Color will probably actually take this film's place as it won the Palme D'or and people have heard about it.
Spring Breakers Harmony Korine
The Great Gatsby Baz Luhrman; I enjoyed it quite well although the film's reviews were not that favorable, compared to "Like a Virgin" Moulin Rouge.
The Counselor Ridley Scott Cormac McCarthy

Director

Harmony Korine

Steve McQueen

The Coen Brothers

Ridley Scott

All of which are taking risks, doing something new, and/or being in your face with their material.

The 5th is quite a question mark. I like Stoker and The Grandmasters, but have not analyzed them enough to predict them as best film of the year nomination. Hayao Miyazaki might get it just because it is his last film and it may be his deepest. We will see.

Dark Horse: Harmony Korine, but not totally unlikely. The performance in that film were great and the Academy loves acting, not the the direction, writing or directing were bad either.

Favorite: Steve McQueen has the great character interactions, but The Coen Bros can never go wrong with direction.